A Man Is Known To Speak Truth 3 Out Of 4 Times. He Throws A Die And Reports That It Is A Six. Find The Probability That It Is Actually A Six.


Answer :

The difference in solutions comes in the estimation of the probability that the man reports six when six has not occurred.

If the man randomly chooses a number to report when he lies (which seems like a reasonable statement), then the probability he chooses 6 is 1/5. If you multiply your calculation of P(E|S2) by this, you get your teacher's solution.


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